Monday, May 12, 2008

Politics of the Past: Going Going

The politics of the past, unlikely to be gone ever in the minds of the likes of Governor Ed Rendell and the Clinton Team.

Until Barack Obama not only wins the Democrat Party nomination for President, but takes the White House by storm in November, and reality sets in, people will continue to claim Obama must win "certain" states in the Democratic Primary, or oops, he just can't win in the Fall in a national contest against who, John McCain.

It's not Senator Obama's weakness, but you've all discounted Sen Clinton's strenths, says Governor Ed Rendell this morning on MSNBC.

What the good Governor is forgetting, Clinton did not win by the predicted double digits in Pennsylvania. In the two weeks prior to the Primary, Obama narrowed her 20 point lead down to a steady 6-points. This was during the weeks the media brought up the issue of Rev. Wright, and Obama made the comment about bitter small town Pennsylvanians, and Rev. Wright spoke at the National Press Club.

A day later Obama outright rejected Rev. Wright, and the media again went wild with the story bringing in pundits who did nothing but question why Obama didn't "disown" Wright a month ago, or 20 years ago.

Still after all of that, Obama narrowed Clinton's PA lead from 20 down to 6-points.

And Clinton did not win in the double digits, the woman in the pants suit won by 200,000 votes and 9.2 percent exactly. That's on the end closer to 9, by the way, not 10.

Only a few in the media highlighted the fact of the narrower win. Most plugged her win as in the double digits, when it clearly was not.

Obama also narrowed Clinton's predicted win in Indiana. At one point, according to the media Obama was favored to potentially win the state based on part of the geographicical area adjacent to Chicago. Obama campaigned heavily there, but so did Clinton.

One would think, with the Clinton name - a brand according to some pundits - and the Clinton political machinery, well-known how that works - and the Clinton's both of them - notoriety selling a couple of books - and Bill Clinton being a former President and all - they'd have no trouble pulling out a clear win in Indiana. One of the heartbelt's in America.

But Obama came within a single percentage point of tying or winning there.

And this was after the controversies about Rev. Wright. (By the way, word is Wright is writing a book to be published in October this year. And guess who is hoping beyond hope there is a photograph of Obama sitting in the pews of the church on a date when Wright uttered his famous quote said to go down in history: ___**** America)

Obviously, Clinton's gas tax holiday was a no-go for Indiana voters. Some say had the discussion of differences between Obama and Clinton on that issue continued for another day or two, Obama would have erased Clinton's lead there on that single issue.

West Virginians are another group of voters who are touted as a decisive factor in the Fall election.

Rendell said West Virginia is one of the states that winners of the Presidency have historically among wins to claim the Presidency.

We'll see. If Obama's record coming out of state-by-state campaign travels is any indication, after visiting a state, voters turn to him, not away from him, he could narrow Clinton's lead there dramatically within a few days before Tuesday, and that would show his talent to attract new voters and voters who reject the past politics to him.

Clinton is favored to win WV by 60 percent to Obama's 23 percent.

At stake according to reports, 28 total committed delegates.

Looks dismal there, but results might depend heavily on the amount of college and university students who turn out to vote Tuesday. The state historically has a low African-American population.

Come the Fall campaigns, Obama would need to visit these states as often as possible, and with his deftness attracting the funding to him by small-time contributors, he'd have the edge over John McCain in that area, as he's had with Clinton.

The media is also missing entirely some 9 superdelegates who have turned to Obama after his impressive North Carolina win to enable Obama to be within 1.5 votes of Clinton in superdelegates.

MSNBC's Chuck Todd said this morning Obama is set to overtake Clinton in superdelegates shortly as he's within two.

That has been confirmed according to news reports around noon. MSNBC puts Obama ahead in Superdelegates by two delegates while other reports note a 1-point lead for Obama.

Even with a Clinton win in WV, it is unlikely Clinton will be able to match Obama in overall committed delegates since the remaining states delegates mathmatically don't add up to the point difference Clinton would need, and Clinton would have to take some 70 percent of voters in the remaining states in the wins.

Analysts have noted that is mathmatically unfeasible since Obama has some amount of support in the remaining states.

Obama's speech after North Carolina and Indiana excerpts

Excerpts of Obama's speech after NC and Indiana primaries
Email|Print|Single Page| Text size – + By The Associated Press
May 6, 2008


W Virginia keeps distance from Obama
By Andrew Ward

Published: May 11 2008 20:13 | Last updated: May 11 2008 20:13

Like most people in Mingo County, West Virginia, Leonard Simpson is a lifelong Democrat. But given a choice between Barack Obama and John McCain in November, the 67-year-old retired coalminer would vote Republican.

“I heard that Obama is a Muslim and his wife’s an atheist,” said Mr Simpson, drawing on a cigarette outside the fire station in Williamson, a coalmining town of 3,400 people surrounded by lush wooded hillsides.,s01=1.html?nclick_check=1

(Net the Truth Online)

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