Thursday, May 01, 2008

Barack Obama: Up Down Not Out

What's still been amazing, after all the flak over Rev. Wright, and the bitter small-town Pennsylvanians/Americans, Barack Obama continues to increase in the polls after he visits on-site, in person, the rural areas and urban areas of a state in particular a state once showing double digits for Hillary Clinton.

Obama had a wide lead in North Carolina, recently, in April, but just previous to that, in March, he had a 7-point lead. Now his lead is back to 7-points.

The important situation is Election Day. In PA Hillary Clinton's lead narrowed down to 6-points, then almost 4 points. She won the state she was favored to win two-weeks earlier by some 20 points.

And the final count showed a 9.2 percent difference not a double-digit win for Clinton in PA.

So if the same would hold true for Barack Obama, look for Obama to win by a near double-digit spread in North Carolina. Much to the chagrin of the mainstream media that's kept the Jeremiah Wright story going for near two-months now.

Net the Truth Online

Poll: Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama in tight race for N.C. votes
Posted: Today at 12:10 a.m.
Updated: Today at 9:47 a.m.

Raleigh, N.C. — It is an exciting time for North Carolina voters. For the first time in decades, they have a say in the Democratic primary for president.

A WRAL news poll released Wednesday shows Barack Obama's double-digit lead over Hillary Clinton among Tar heel Democrats is eroding.

Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. surveyed 400 likely Democratic voters Monday and Tuesday. The results show Obama with a 7 point lead over Clinton, with 9 percent undecided. The poll has a margin of error of 5 percentage points.

WRAL News Poll: Obama Has Double Digit Lead in N.C.
Posted: Apr. 6, 2008
Updated: Apr. 7, 2008

Raleigh, N.C. — Democratic presidential contender Barack Obama has a commanding lead over Hillary Rodham Clinton in North Carolina, but he might face greater difficulties than she against likely Republican nominee John McCain in the general election.

In the latest WRAL News poll, 56 percent of likely Democratic voters said they would give Obama their support in the Democratic primary. Thirty-three percent chose Clinton, and 11 percent were unsure.

A WRAL News poll in early March showed Obama with a seven-point lead.

Rasmussen Markets data just prior to the release of this poll showed Obama was heavily favored to win the North Carolina Primary. Current prices show that Obama has a 85.0% chance of winning while Clinton is given a 16.9% chance of victory. Numbers in this paragraph are from a prediction market, not a poll. We invite you to participate in the Rasmussen Markets...

Wishful thinking. Look who they weighted out

InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Survey: North Carolina Democratic Primary: Hillary Clinton Takes Lead Over Obama

Compiled from InsiderAdvantage and Southern Political Report staff

April 30, 2008 — A survey of 571 registered likely voters in North Carolina’s May 6 Democratic primary shows Sen. Hillary Clinton having moved from a double digit deficit in an InsiderAdvantage poll taken in mid-April to a two point lead over Sen. Barack Obama in this telephone survey, conducted April 29. The survey was weighted for age, race, gender, and political affiliation. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8%

The results were:

Hillary Clinton: 44%
Barack Obama: 42%
Undecided: 14%

Prior to his appearance on FoxNews Network’s “Hannity & Colmes,” on which the poll was released, InsiderAdvantage’s Matt Towery noted: “The shift has come almost entirely from white voters age 45 and over. There was a small drift of African-Americans back towards Clinton, but not so significant as to establish any trend.

“I believe when all is said and done, Obama will likely carry North Carolina; or if he loses the race, it will be by just a few points.

“Our polling generally does not indicate the eventual compression of black voters that Obama usually enjoys just before Election Day. If that happens, my guess is that he will pull this out. However, this poll is clearly an indication of reaction to the latest statements by his former pastor; and it forces Sen. Obama to split resources between Indiana and North Carolina.

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