Sunday, March 23, 2008

PA Gov and NM Gov pol-polls

On Fox News Sunday, Governor Ed Rendell (a Clinton supporter and superdelegate) cited national polling of USA TODAY and Rasmussen he claims put Hillary Clinton is ahead of Barack Obama nationally in the polling.

Gov. Richardson (recently endorsed Obama) attempted to set the record straight, but it was the end of the segment. Chris Wallace interrupted Richardson before he could cite the equally current Gallup poll.

Even USA TODAY includes the updated stats from the Gallup polling, however the short report additionally notes

.. The Gallup tracking poll is based on interviews with 1,264 Democratic or Democrat-leaning voters March 19-21. Its margin of error is +/-3 percentage points.

A tracking poll by Rasmussen Reports has shown a different trajectory. In that poll, Obama clung to leads of 1 to 5 percentage points all week and fell behind Clinton for the first time today, 46%-44%. Rasmussen calculations are based on four nights of polling, compared to Gallup's three.

March 22, 2008
Gallup Daily: Obama Edges Ahead of ClintonDemocratic nomination preference: Obama 48%, Clinton 45%

Comparison of poll results

Saturday, March 22, 2008
Nationally, Hillary Clinton now holds a very slight advantage over Barack Obama, 46% to 44%...


Gallup: Obama recaptures edge over Clinton
Gallup reports: Barack Obama has quickly made up the deficit he faced with Hillary Clinton earlier this week, with the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update on Democratic presidential nomination preferences showing 48% of Democratic voters favoring Obama and 45% Clinton.

Obama fell behind Clinton on March 14 and stayed there until today. "Obama's campaign clearly suffered in recent days from negative press, mostly centering around his association with the controversial Rev. Jeremiah Wright," wrote Gallup analyst Jeff Jones. "But Obama has now edged back ahead of Clinton due to a strong showing for him in Friday night's polling, perhaps in response to the endorsement he received from well-respected New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson."

March, 2008 Scientific American

Super Tuesday: Markets Predict Outcome Better Than Polls
Internet-based financial markets appear to forecast elections better than polls do. They also probe how well the next George Clooney drama will do at the box office and how bad the next flu season will be.

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