Sunday, March 09, 2008

Lawmakers Self Interest Jobs Key to Super-delegate Nominee Committments

Comes through loud and clear, in the article Lawmaker stumping for Obama.

Imagine, state office-holders fearful of their electorate for not supporting the presidential candidate of their choice - isn't that a bit skewed?

Picking sides can be a high-risk, low-reward move for state lawmakers. Terry Madonna, a pollster at Franklin & Marshall College in Lancaster, said few voters will be swayed by endorsements from their local state lawmakers. Conversely, he said, lawmakers risk upsetting their supporters or campaign staffers by getting in the middle of the showdown.

"They don't need to get embroiled in a presidential campaign," he said of lawmakers. "They've got supporters on either side of the issue. They can privately be for somebody, but a lot of them don't want to get too far in front of this."

If the lawmakers don't want to get embroiled in a presidential campaign, why'd they accept the political position of being super-delegates?

Why not state upfront two things: who is the candidate you committed to prior to Iowa. who will you vote for should one of the current two frontrunners pull ahead in delegates committed by the votes of the people?

The current situation in the Democratic Party is clearly Hillary Clinton is not the frontrunner in acquired committed delegates, nor will Clinton acquire the necessary delegates from this point forward to overtake Senator Barack Obama's lead in committed delegates - even if she wins the remaining contests.

Senator Barack Obama's situation is a continued lead in both accumulative popular vote and committed delegates.

Polls taken daily show Obama has already narrowed the double-digit lead in PA once enjoyed by Senator Hillary Clinton to single digit numbers.

The pattern to Obama's campaign has been slimming the Clinton leads within mere days of state primaries and/or caucuses.

Even in Texas primaries, just within days of the event, Clinton had been favored for weeks, yet Obama tied Clinton in polling the day before and leading into the Super Tuesday 2 voting.

While Clinton won the popular vote there, in the Primary, the win netted Clinton only 4 more delegates than Obama. Meanwhile, the caucus results have not been completed, but the prevailing wisdom is Obama will win the popular vote there.

The pattern may apply to Pennsylvania's April 22 Primary.

Lawmaker stumping for Obama
By Kori Walter, For the Herald-Standard
Updated 03/08/2008 10:15:21 PM EST
State Rep. Josh Shapiro will keep busy during the next six weeks making campaign speeches and urging voters to show up at the polls for the April 22 primary election.

But he will not be doing all that campaign work for himself. He's running unopposed in the primary.

Shapiro's effort will be aimed at trying to help U.S. Sen. Barack Obama win Pennsylvania, which pundits have declared the last major battleground in an epic battle for the Democratic presidential nomination.

Shapiro, D-Montgomery County, pledged his support for Obama last summer when the Illinois senator was still considered a long shot to win the nomination coveted by U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York.

As presidential primary politics heat up in the Keystone State for the first time since 1976, many Democratic state lawmakers said they still are undecided - or at least unwilling to publicly reveal which candidate they will back.

House Majority Leader Bill DeWeese, Greene County, along with Reps. Sean Ramaley, Beaver County, Chris King, Bucks County, and Tim Mahoney, Fayette County, said they were still uncommitted to either Clinton or Obama.

Mahoney, a freshman lawmaker who will be contending with a primary challenge from former Rep. Larry Roberts this spring, was candid about his lack of commitment.

"I'm in my own campaign, and I don't want to pick one (candidate)," he said. "I might tick off some people doing that."..

Added April 17, 2008 Fayette Poverty Stats and Lawmaker position not yet committed to Clinton...

National politics excites Fayette

By Paul Peirce
Tuesday, March 25, 2008

...But while presidential candidates have largely ignored Fayette, this year with every Democrat voter in Pennsylvania at a premium, the county is a potential treasure trove with 61,408 Democrats among its 89,226 registered voters.

Lee said it is about time people start paying attention to a region that, according to U.S. Census figures, beats the state average of residents over 65 years old, at 17.5 percent compared to 15 percent...

Seventeen percent of Fayette residents live in poverty, compared to 11 percent in the state. While 18 percent of state residents have not earned a high school diploma, that figure climbs to 24 percent of adults in Fayette.

State Rep. Tim Mahoney of South Union said he believes whoever wants to win the state will have to trek throughout Pennsylvania "not just the cities."

"Whoever wins the rural areas will end up winning the state. That is why these visits are so important, particularly this year," said Mahoney, who is not yet committed to Clinton.

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