Sunday, November 02, 2008

Zogby slams cheering & jeering Bloggers Needs Help

In our opinion, Zogby needs the help, not bloggers who on the conservative side, (OK they went a bit overboard jubilant) cheered his one day poll 'results' and on the liberal side jeered (OK a bit snidely) those results which showed, according to Zogby, McCain one percentage point ahead of Obama.

McCain 48% Obama 47%

Zogby's day later report is not a retraction of his results, but he should issue an apology for his misleading if not wildly inaccurate analysis.

Zogby's poll revealed a so called one point advantage to John McCain and Zogby's report actually analyzed and generalized from that

Barack Obama's 30-minute television special had virtually no effect on potential voters. (that day)(implied as longer than one day)

We'd have put exclamation marks after our original analysis Loony but why push it.

Saturday, November 01, 2008
Zogby Poll McCain 1 point ahead Loony

We'll put in the exclamations now - Looney Biz Zogby!

What Zogby said:
Almost two days worth of the polling—or about half of the current sample in the three-day rolling poll of likely voters nationwide, was conducted after Obama's 30-minute commercial aired Wednesday evening. There is no evidence it helped him, as he has dropped 1.1 points in the last two days, while McCain has gained 0.8 points during the same period...

No evidence a multimillion dollar ad run on numerous network channels and watched by some 34 million viewers had an 'effect' on those viewers? Among those viewers those who would vote? Or maybe Zogby as we posed before polled the Sisters of St. Basil.

Get real. Or not.

Calm it down, bloggers, calm it down... Zogby advises.

OK - we won't. Not when you state in your own poll results there's no evidence the Obama 30-minute ad Wednesday night had an effect when you knew the three-day stats would be more revealing of a trend than a single one-day snapshot! Or a half day plus a half day snapshot, however you want to do it.

Because however you did it, you analyzed it wrong.

Plus, the chart on the page shows no one-day 48 % for John McCain, (47% Obama) which according to Zogby would have been shown for Friday, October 31, so where'd that come from?

A day later, Zogby confuses further...

"So what happened to give McCain a one-point lead in the one-day polling on Friday?...

Notice Zogby doesn't exactly answer the question posed.

We can speculate as well as the next guy. What happened was a blip on the radar that other experts tag as negligible noise when looked at in one moment of time rather than the routine more established 3-day snapshot which is more indicative of 'trends.'

Net the Truth Online

Zogby to Bloggers: "Calm It Down .... Look at Your Baseball Cards"
By Tom Blumer | November 2, 2008 - 09:08

It's hard to tell whether this is a reaction to "It's about time!" complaints that would tend to come from the center-right, or to "How dare you!" protests from the left (my money is on the latter), but pollster John Zogby took an unprofessional turn in his Saturday report (to be replaced in 24-48 hours) that was released in the wee hours this morning.

The substantive news is that Barack Obama is ahead 5.7% in Zogby's three-day rolling average. Obama came in 10 points ahead in one-day Saturday polling (52-42, after trailing John McCain 48-47 on Friday (weekend polling bias, anyone?).

Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll: One Day Is Not A Trend: Obama Holds His Lead
Obama 49.5%, McCain 43.8%
Released: 11-02-2008

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Next Release: 11-03-08, 1:00AM

UTICA, New York -- After a strong day of polling for Republican presidential candidate John McCain on Friday, Democrat Barack Obama experienced a strong single day of polling on Saturday, retaining a 5.7 point advantage that is right at the edge of the margin of error of the Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby daily tracking poll. The race has remained remarkably stable down the stretch, this three-day rolling average poll shows.

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