Sunday, June 22, 2008

Independents split Obama McCain Comprise One-Third electorate

Scott Keeter being interviewed on C-span

Independent voters are split between Barack Obama and John McCain equally.

Independents make up one-third of the electorate.

Caller calls in about electoral college. Keeter reviews states which could come into play with a base make-up of independents.

While that's all fine and dandy, do independents, those registered to vote, actually go out and vote for one or the other of the two majority party candidates in the General Election, or do independents bypass Republicans and Democrats to vote for a Third-Party.

Keeter doesn't seem to have distinguished between independents who register in a Third-Party, in effect choosing to bypass the two-party electoral process, and those who register to vote in their state but specifically choose a "No-Party" status, or other.

What would be interesting to determine how many voters registered in the two-majority parties and the Third-Party category of independents switched voter registration in those states with closed primaries to vote in this election vs in past years?

A caller mentioned Ron Paul was ignored by the mainstream media.

Actually, if you look closely at the coverage, he wasn't ignored. He made the rounds of all the networks.

Plus, Paul has espoused being a Libertarian, but he isn't registered as a Libertarian, he's registered as a Republican.

As his campaign was rumored to about to be suspended, he was asked if he'd make a run as a Libertarian. He stated he was a Republican and wanted to work within.

Well of course he wanted to work within the Republican Party tag as he couldn't be elected even in his own district otherwise since (unfortunately) the number of registered Libertarians is far less than Republicans.

And Texas has some odd registration procedures as well.

His name was on the ballot in Texas for both Republican nominee for president and to retain his district representative seat.

He overwhelmingly won his seat in that Primary against an opponent some 70 percent, but he had a dismal showing in that same district for President.

check our site posts on that issue...

Keeter broached the potential independents/Republicans who were Ron Paul supporters might now support the Libertarian candidate for President, Bob Barr.

But Keeter didn't go into all the baggage Barr carries with his background as a staunch conservative Republican in Congress for many years.

C-Span covered the Libertarian Convention process which included all of the candidates for the nomination participating in a panel Q & A session.

See C-Span archives


Note: Libertarians and Constitutional Party members are not going to have much of an impact on whether or not John McCain convinces enough conservative "Republicans" to vote for him to outdistance the amount of liberals (progressives) and moderate liberals who vote for Barack Obama. It's actually the true "independents" who will make the difference in this election. Those who are affiliated with "no party" or listed in the voter registry as of no party affiliation.

They are fed up with the two-party system, believing that system is entrenched in corruption to the extent it gives incumbents an overwhelming edge in elections.

Both groupings, independents and Third-Party independents, has longstandingly been disenchanted with any with the two-majority party policies.

But those independents not connected to a Third Party will have a choice this election in two candidates who both bring something "different" from pure Party affiliation.

It remains to be seen whether either Obama or McCain can convince those independents that things in Washington will be drastically different with either at the head of the country.

Net the Truth Online

Scott Keeter Pew Research Center

Libertarians 'may send a message' to the GOP

By David Brown
Monday, June 23, 2008

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